Tomorrow morning, at 7 am, I will give a talk at the Actuarial Conference # 62 on climate models and insurance, getting back on two recent paper.
- Flood, French’s Nat Cat System and Fairness
The first paper is Insurance against NaturalCatastrophes: Balancing Actuarial Fairness and Social Solidarity with Laurence Barry (PARI) and Molly James (EURIA)
Based on official risk areas (PPRL and PPRI)
we will investigate the prices of houses and apartments
and discuss connections between risk and wealth.
- Subsidence and predictions
The second paper is Predicting Drought and SubsidenceRisks in France with Hani Ali (Willis Re) and Molly James (EURIA)
We did try several models to predict subsidence frequency
GLMs and also random forests
Then we got predictions for frequency, in 2017
Then, we’ve been able to derive some risk maps
Here are predictions for costs for 2017
and for 2020
I still wonder how to take into account climate change in this approach (except that we are more and more likely to be in the upper left corner – hot and dry)
- Extensions (wildfires in Québec and RL)
Finally, I will (very briefly) discuss two recent works, the first one with Amirouche Benchallal (UQAM) and Yacine Bouroubi (Sherbrooke) on wildfire in Québec
and the second one, with Nouri Sakr (Columbia) and Mennatalla Mohamed Hassan (AmericanUniversity in Cairo) on government intervention in the context of natural catastrophes.