A new GEE method to account for heteroscedasticity using asymmetric least-square regressions

Our paper, with Amadou Barry and Karim Oualkacha, a new GEE method to account for heteroscedasticity using asymmetric least-square regressions is now published in the Journal of Applied Statistics

Generalized estimating equations (GEE) are widely used to analyze longitudinal data; however, they are not appropriate for heteroscedastic data, because they only estimate regressor effects on the mean response – and therefore do not account for data heterogeneity. Here, we combine the GEE with the asymmetric least squares (expectile) regression to derive a new class of estimators, which we call generalized expectile estimating equations (GEEE). The GEEE model estimates regressor effects on the expectiles of the response distribution, which provides a detailed view of regressor effects on the entire response distribution. In addition to capturing data heteroscedasticity, the GEEE extends the various working correlation structures to account for within-subject dependence. We derive the asymptotic properties of the GEEE estimators and propose a robust estimator of its covariance matrix for inference (see our R package, github.com/AmBarry/expectgee). Our simulations show that the GEEE estimator is non-biased and efficient, and our real data analysis shows it captures heteroscedasticity.

Predicting Drought and Subsidence Risks in France

New paper with Molly James and Hani Ali, now available on https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.07668

The economic consequences of drought episodes are increasingly important, although they are often difficult to apprehend in part because of the complexity of the underlying mechanisms. In this article, we will study one of the consequences of drought, namely the risk of subsidence (or more specifically clay shrinkage induced subsidence), for which insurance has been mandatory in France for several decades. Using data obtained from several insurers, representing about a quarter of the household insurance market, over the past twenty years, we propose some statistical models to predict the frequency but also the intensity of these droughts, for insurers, showing that climate change will have probably major economic consequences on this risk. But even if we use more advanced models than standard regression-type models (here random forests to capture non linearity and cross effects), it is still difficult to predict the economic cost of subsidence claims, even if all geophysical and climatic information is available.

Collaborative Insurance Sustainability and Network Structure

Our joint paper, with Lariosse Kouakou, Matthias Löwe, Philipp Ratz and Franck Vermet, entitled “Collaborative Insurance Sustainability and Network Structure” is now available on Arxiv,

The peer-to-peer (P2P) economy has been growing with the advent of the internet, with well known brands such as Uber or Airbnb being examples thereof. In the insurance sector the approach is still in its infancy, but some companies have started to explore P2P-based collaborative insurance products (eg. Lemonade in the U.S. or Inspeer in France). The actuarial literature only recently started to consider those risk sharing mechanisms, as in Denuit and Robert (2020) or Feng et al. (2021). In this paper, describe and analyse such a P2P product, with some reciprocal risk sharing contracts. Here, we consider the case where policyholders still have an insurance contract, but the first self-insurance layer, below the deductible, can be shared with friends. We study the impact of the shape of the network (through the distribution of degrees) on the risk reduction. We consider also some optimal setting of the reciprocal commitments, and discuss the introduction of contracts with friends of friends to mitigate some possible drawbacks of having people without enough connections to exchange risks.