“Improving Segmentation” (using Lorenz curves, or sort of)

This afternoon, André did send me an interesting graph about the use of Lorenz curve in the context of insurance pricing (and modeling)

It is some sort of Lorenz curve, upside-down, with on the x-axis the proportion of the population, and on the y-axis the proportion of the losses. The important point is that the population is sorted according the their risk, i.e. their premium. The code to generate such a curve is actually quite simple,

L <- function(u,varx="premium",vary="losses"){
  base=base[order(base[,varx],decreasing=TRUE),]
  base$cum=(1:nrow(base))/nrow(base)
return(sum(base[base$cum<=u,vary])/
sum(base[,vary]))}
 
vu=seq(0,1,by=.01)
vv=Vectorize(function(u) L(u))(vu)

My concern was more on two labels on the figure, with on the top-left “perfect pricing” and on the first diagonal “average pricing“. What could that possibly mean? Is there even such a thing as a “perfect pricing“? In order to understand what we plot here, let us generate some dataset, and fit some model. Including things that might be seen as the “perfect model“: the price base on the parameters used to generate the data, and the model used to generate the data, fitted on the data.

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Modelling Occurence of Events, with some Exposure

This afternoon, an interesting point was raised, and I wanted to get back on it (since I did publish a post on that same topic a long time ago). How can we adapt a logistic regression when all the observations do not have the same exposure. Here the model is the following: ,

  • the occurence of an event https://latex.codecogs.com/gif.latex?Y_i^\star on the period https://latex.codecogs.com/gif.latex?[0,1] is unobserved
  • the occurence of an event https://latex.codecogs.com/gif.latex?Y_i on https://latex.codecogs.com/gif.latex?[0,E_i] is observed (as well as https://latex.codecogs.com/gif.latex?E_i)

If we assume that the ‘occurence of an event’ is the first occurence of a Poisson processus, we can prove that

i.e. no event occur on  if no event occur on  and no event occur on . Assuming independence between the two, we can prove that we have

https://latex.codecogs.com/gif.latex?\mathbb{P}(Y=0)%20=%20\mathbb{P}(N=0)^E

With words, it means that the probability of not having a claim in the first six months of the year is the square root of not have a claim over a year. Which makes sense.

Continue reading Modelling Occurence of Events, with some Exposure